Got Gold Report – Silver Buys Too Much Oil?

Excerpt #3:  Silver-oil exchange rate near 20-year lows, but ratio skewed by low silver prices last two decades. COMEX deliverable silver inventory falls below 30 million ounces. 

This is our third and final excerpt of the Sunday, June 19 full Got Gold Report.  Let’s pick up where yesterday’s excerpt #2 (the post just under this one on the GGR Home page), which left off with the following: 

Do we have to point out that the CDNX is just now trading at a level it first reached back in Q1 of 2004?  Want to take a guess where gold and silver were when the CDNX first touched 1,900 on the way up?  Gold was then dancing either side of $400 the ounce and silver had then managed to print $6 on the upside.  So much for the idea that mining shares leverage gold and silver gains.  Over time, and post a major crash that is a quaint myth.  

We all keep hearing about the coming mania phase of the gold and silver bull market.  It ain’t here yet, and today’s market for the juniors just about has to have a lot more upside potential – if the world manages to hold itself together, we think.      

Silver Buys Too Much Oil? 

20110623oilSilverRatio
Oil/Silver Ratio, since 1990, weekly, using West Texas Intermediate Crude for oil, updated thru June 21.  If any of the images are too small or get cut off click on the top of them for a larger version or click on the title of this post for the full page.  

Continued...

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Have the ‘Little Guys’ Quit Underperforming the Big Boys?

Timberline kicks off 30,000-foot drill campaign for gold at S. Eureka, NV.  

Courtesy excerpt #2 of Sunday’s full Got Gold Report, Target Rich Environment Nears.  The first excerpt, released Tuesday, is the post just under this one on the front page of the GGR web log.  

Before we get to today’s excerpt of the GGR we call attention to our 2010 Vulture Bargain #4 and our Top Pick for the junior gold space in Steven Halpern’s TheStockAdvisors.com Analysts Challenge (on AOL) for 2011, Timberline Resources (NYSE Arca: TLR or TBR.V in Canada).  

TLR has been under pressure along with most all the small resource companies since about the time when Goldman Sachs issued its sell-miners and commods call to clients in early April (and probably to really, really good clients in March – just our guess there, but we digress…).  They are under pressure despite the company issuing what we believe is nothing but good or excellent news from both of their major prospects in Montana and Nevada.  We consider the Idaho-based soon-to-be-lo-cost-underground-gold-producer as exceptionally low-priced for what they have already put on the table, as Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers), already know.  

20110622TLR
Timberline Resources, our 1-year small tracking chart, daily, showing that TLR has returned to our upper “op box.”  The upper or purple “op box” represents an area where we would expect strong to overwhelming support to form absent a crisis or barring company-specific bad news.  We sometimes also use a lower or green op box that represents where we would expect overwhelming support to form even under all but the most severe duress.  

Continued…

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Stealth Bullish Indicator - Who is Left to Sell?

Courtesy excerpt of the Full Got Gold Report. 

HOUSTON – One of the points that we focused on in Sunday’s full Got Gold Report was that the Canadian Venture Exchange Index or CDNX is currently trading at a level it first reached in Q1 of 2004, back when gold was trading either side of $400 and silver near $6. That kind of argues with conventional wisdom that the miners “leverage” the price gains in gold and silver – at least so far, and following the super-panic, near-death experience we all endured three years ago.   

Over the next few days we plan to publish several short excerpts of that important report in this free public forum, including our detailed look at the CDNX technical picture.  Stay tuned for those excerpts, meanwhile, is it our imagination, or has the collective world stopped holding its breath over the past 72 hours? 

How about that?  Apparently the markets are attempting to discount the headlines.  Not today’s headlines, but the news we will be reading about the economy a quarter or two or three hence.  Our view is that the 2011 Vulture Bargain Hunting Season may begin to ripen just ahead … or maybe now.  We’ll see.  

*** 

Just below is an excerpt of this past weekend’s full 35-page Got Gold Report, which was delivered to Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) Sunday afternoon and posted to the password protected subscriber pages then. 

Excerpt:  Got Gold Report – “Target Rich Environment Nears” from June 19. 

Moving on, the indicators we watch every day and study every weekend are like semaphore systems.  They send up “flags” from time to time.  Below are a few of the ones we thought worth sharing this week. …  

One of the more valuable indicators that we track, but rarely share is the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index or BPGDM, which measures the percentage of miners in the NYSE Arca (AMEX) Gold Miners Index (GDM) that are in point and figure chart uptrends (most all will be above key moving averages).  We think of it as a forward-looking contrary barometer.   As this index moves much higher we reckon that there are fewer and fewer people left to buy and thus the market is becoming overbought, and vice versa.  Obviously we are in the “vice versa” part of the description currently. 

20110621BPGDM
BPGDM, 2-year, weekly, updated thru June 20. If any of the images are too small or get cut off, click on the top of them for a larger version or clock on the title of this post for the full page.  

This index is currently “saying” that a majority, if not most of the people who might have been inclined to sell probably already have sold, but there is still room at the bottom for more selling, especially in a panic. The lower this indicator goes the more “value” has been wrung from the miners and thus the more upside there is for the future in our peculiar way of looking at things.  

Continued…  

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Got Gold Report – Target-Rich Environment Nears

“For now, sit tight.” – Brien Lundin  

HOUSTON (Got Gold Report) – There sure seems to be plenty of “bear food” this third week of June, in the economic data and in the markets.  Nervous uncertainty, an abundance of fearful sellers, very few buyers and pretty light volume are good conditions for mercenary bargain hunting, but lousy for “value” in the small, liquidity dependent, mostly thinly traded issues we love to game here at Got Gold Report.  (That is with a small portion of our high-risk speculating ammo, remember.)  The smallest resource companies are still under pressure and bargains are now becoming more and more prevalent.

Vulture Bargain Hunting Season in Full Bloom

 20110617CDNXandGDXJ

We plan to stay on point and on message this Vulture Bargain Hunting Summer two days before the summer solstice.  Just four, five and six months ago we lamented that small resource company bargains were practically nonexistent, but we said then that patient Vultures should raise a Bargain War Chest (BWC) to get ready for when the “Little Guys” would once again present us with a “Vulture-Bargain-Hunting-Target-Rich-Environment” (VBH-TRE).  Looking over the long list of guru-favorite companies we track on technical charts over this past two weeks, we can say now, unequivocally, that we are fast approaching that VBH-TRE goal.  Indeed, we have already re-deployed more than half of our own personal BWC into some of the issues we wanted to own but thought too richly valued by a then overly-eager-to-buy market.  We have also redeployed portions of our BWC back into some of the very companies we sold parts or all of from November to March to raise that high-risk gaming ammo, only the companies had been knocked back to 50%, 60% and even more than 70% lower than where we eased out of them - in just a few short month’s time.   

20110617rollerCoaster The reasons we love the “Little Guys” are the very same ones that many people come to hate or shun them. Their super-high volatility being their most dangerous attribute (to some) and thus, the most valuable (to us Vultures).  In our way of thinking (and our method of gaming), nothing beats being able to take advantage of other’s fear, panic and disgust – by providing liquidity just as some sellers succumb to the overpowering desire to “stop the bleeding.”  We imagine that day comes for many sellers after long periods of thinking, “They can’t go any lower than this!” 

Oh, yes they can go lower, Mr. or Mrs. Small Resource Company Holder.  In a negative liquidity event, such as the one underway right now, the notion of “value” gets summarily tossed out upon its backside.  There is no such thing as “value” in small, way-too-thinly traded junior miners and explorers when general market conditions send buyers on strike, when selling snowballs and when fear rules the season.  There is only the strange world negative liquidity, where some sellers still decide to hit the sell button even when there are few or no buyers there to catch the shares, driving prices down lower and lower relentlessly until mercenary deep-discount players, insiders and a precious few large bargain hunting specialists decide that the issue has become irresistibly low priced.

At that theoretical point, when the known and unknown company insiders, deep discount buyers and small resource company bargain specialists decide to step in, these issues arrive at what we call “OS” on the charts, or overwhelming support.  At that point, or rather in that zone, because it is rarely a single point, we Vultures become more confident in our “Faves.”   We aren’t always right about where that OS zone lives, but one thing is certain when we do attempt to game the “Little Guys” in the zones we believe OS resides: By then, a great deal of “value enthusiasm” has evaporated, yet usually the company is either the same or is actually in better position to regain its former “glory” when now-prevalent fear is once again replaced by market optimism, as it always is, sooner or later.

Being a Bargain Hunting Vulture means having the patience, discipline and fortitude to buy other’s panic and to sell into their over-enthusiasm, never being arrogant or over-confident about it, and always with the understanding that time is the least predictable and least controllable of all the conditions we must navigate in our bargain hunting experience.          

More in a moment, but first, here is this week’s closing table and comments.

20110617Table 

Table comments:  Gold still stronger than silver, not a bullish signal short term. Lower highs and lows for both. ICE commercials selling into the greenback rally. Negative liquidity environment persists for miners.  HUI overselling gold and silver, a short term caution flag.  Ted spread not reflecting dire news in the EU. Positive money flow for GLD and most gold ETFs, but very strong negative money flow for SLV.  Gold/silver ratio edged higher to a 43 handle, but still well below our upside target of 45 or 46 ounces to one ounce gold.  Modest decrease in commercial net short positions for gold, almost no change for silver futures, despite a drop of $1.74 Tuesday to Tuesday.  Clearly the indicators show signs of stress and of a market under pressure, but not all of the indicators are bearish, as we shall see a bit later on in the full report.      

Continue reading "Got Gold Report – Target-Rich Environment Nears" »

New Vulture Bargain ‘Ops’

Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) may want to log in to the subscriber pages to view a few new additions to the Vulture Bargain Candidates of Interest (VBCIs), as our current Vulture Bargain Hunting Season is in full swing.

Quite a few more are under consideration, but these few additions will do for today.  

Meanwhile, consider the chart just below for a moment.

20110617GDXJbig 

GDXJ, 1-year, daily, as a proxy for small mining shares.  If any of the images are too small or get cut off, click on the top of them for a larger version, or click on the title of this post for the full page.  


Continued… 

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More Charts

Sometimes it pays to step back and reflect on longer-term, monthly charts to remind ourselves of the trends in place. 

20110615GoldLT 

Gold, monthly, since 2001. If the images are too small or get cut off click on the top of them for a larger version or click on the title of this post for the full page. 
 
Causes?  Here are a few familiar ones. A loss of confidence in governments that have abused the privilege of borrowing and printing to “pay” for stuff government should not be doing in the first place, racking up unimaginable sovereign debt; a collective loss of confidence in pandering politicians that forgot or never knew the meaning of sound money; flagging confidence in all fiat currencies and real, very real terror of the loss of purchasing power are some of the factors underpinning the trend we see above. 

 
One of the cruelest ironies is that the politicians will blame the folks in this next graph and blissfully ignorant, ordinary people will believe them. 

 
Continued…  (Please note:  If easily offended by political commentary, or if you have bought into the popular myths of the day, stop here so we can remain on speaking terms.)

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Vulture Chartbook for June 14

While we are in the “summer doldrums,” we plan to share some of our chart work from time to time.  Just the individual charts with embedded comments in them, and maybe a few additional comments when it’s absolutely necessary. 

This, then, is the inaugural edition of the Vulture Chartbook

HUI Gets a Tiny Bounce

20110614HUIshortTerm 


Although it was good to see some green on the screen, we’d have to call it light green so far, but the bidding in the metals seemed stronger than the miners did today, so our interest is piqued. 

Continued… 

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Week by the Numbers, COT Recap

Gold at highest-ever nominal price for a COT Tuesday. 

COMEX commercial traders continue to reduce short exposure in silver futures. 

This week’s closing table.  Below that is the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders (DCOT) recap for this week.  

Week of June 10 

20110610Table
 If any of the images are too small or get cut off click on them for a larger version or click on the title of this post for the full page.  

Brief comments:  

Nervous, uncertain market ahead of the end of QE-2. Big Markets under stress and apparently rolling over. Possible fear crescendo ahead. Both gold and silver see some late week liquidation in USD, but gold firmer in Euro. Gold shows both a higher high and a higher low, but closing meekly near the low in USD. Significant and determined resistance USD $1,550s, then $1,549.  Support all week $1,530s tested, then challenged Friday. 

Comments continue … 

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06/24/2011

Delecate Balancing Act

This video reminds of the balancing act our Federal Reserve is undertaking with the economy, but the fellow doing the balancing doesnt have a beard. Thanks to Graeme Irvine for the link. -- Gene Arensberg

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Frank Holmes on Gold

Frank Holmes sat down with Jeremy Glaser at the 2011Morningstar Investment Conference to discuss what is driving gold and other commodities. -- Gene Arensberg March 31, 2011 (Morning Star)

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Greek Savers Rush for Gold

Source FT via GATA at this link: June 21, 2011 (Source: GATA) http://www.gata.org/node/10028

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Golden Predator Intersects 46.7m of 3.78 g/t Gold at Carlos Zone, Grew Creek Project, Yukon

Vancouver, British Columbia — June, 21, 2011: Golden Predator Corp. (TSX: GPD) (the “Company”) is pleased to announce the results of an additional six core holes from its winter 2011 drill program at the Carlos Zone, Grew Creek Project, Yukon. All of these holes have intersected significant mineralization including 46.7m of 3.78 g/t Gold beginning at a depth of 130.4 m in core hole GC11-276 and 47.3m of 1.02 g/t Gold from a depth of 47m in

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06/23/2011

Southern Silver Exploration Hits Bonanza Vein at Cerro Las Mintas

“New Discovery Returns 1.8 Metres Averaging 1400g/t Ag, 19.7% Pb and 14.5% Zn at Southern Silvers Cerro Las Minitas Project” New zone outside of historic workings. Southern Silver is a Vulture Bargain Company of Interest or VBCI. More via MarketWatch at the link just below: (Disclosure: Members of the GGR team are long SSV.V, and this member has an appetite for a fair bit more if “Stupid Cheap.” What is “Stupid Cheap?” – Vultures already know.) --

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CONSTANTINE-CARLIN JV COMMENCES WORK PROGRAM ON SIXTEEN YUKON GOLD PROPERTIES

PROPERTY POSITION EXPANDED TO 1000 SQUARE KM Constantine Metal Resources Ltd. (“Constantine”) (TSX Venture - CEM) and Carlin Gold Corporation (“Carlin”) (TSX Venture - CGD) jointly (the Companies) announce the start of exploration work on Yukon gold properties of the Constantine-Carlin 50/50 Joint Venture (the “JV”). The Companies also report staking of 1,541 additional claims in six areas prospective for Carlin-type mineralization in the Mayo and Watson Lake Mining Districts, east central Yukon, Canada. (More at the

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Silver-Coin Sales Booming at Perth Mint on Demand for Haven

From June 22: “Silver-coin sales from Australia’s Perth Mint, which was founded in 1899 and processes all of the country’s bullion, have surged to a record as buyers seek to protect their wealth with the metal known as poor man’s gold. The mint sold 10.7 million 1-ounce silver coins since July 1 last year, according to Sales and Marketing Director Ron Currie. That’s 66 percent higher than the previous full fiscal year and about 10-fold more than

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06/22/2011

Northern Tiger Drilling in the Yukon

“Northern Tiger Resources Inc. (Northern Tiger or the Company) (NTR: TSX-V) is pleased to provide an update on its planned $7.2 million Yukon exploration programs (see news release dated May 3, 2011). The 2011 exploration programs are designed to follow up high-grade gold drill discoveries made in 2010 at both the 3Ace and Sonora Gulch projects.” – More at the link below. As Vultures know, NTR.V is our Vulture Bargain #7 (chosen February 20 at $0.48) and

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Al Korelin Interviews Murphy, Steer and Powell, the GATA Brain Trust in Vancouver

Al talks with Bill Murphy, Ed Steer, and Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) about how they uncovered manipulation in the gold markets, secret gold-swap agreements in the Fed, and how the price of gold is being held down still today. (Video 16 mins, worthwile.) “I believe it’s not in the interest of the U.S. government to have a high gold price.” – Al Korelin, Industry Watch, Korelin Economics Report. “It was very clear

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Gingrich on The Fed and Dodd-Frank

“It is profoundly wrong to have your government cheat you by devaluing the dollar right out from under you.” – Newt Gingrich The former Speaker of the House and republican presidential hopeful sounds a lot like Ron Paul in this short video. Gingrich calls for repeal of Dodd-Frank (and it should be repealed at the very least), and to begin with an audit of The Fed, then restricting it to a monetary institution and defender of the

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06/21/2011

My How Times Have Changed

Watch this chilling video. Chilling because it is so blatant to our eyes. Thanks to Vedran Vuk, of Casey Research for finding this link to an MGM “Newsreel” (which were played in movie theaters before and after the headliner of the day), an example of early government brainwashing in the U.S. circa 1933. Vuk writes: Heres an interesting video that I stumbled upon at the Mises Institute website. Its a 1933 propaganda piece promising to bring the

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Drill Gods Smile on Evolving Gold

“Vancouver, British Columbia: Evolving Gold Corp. (TSX: EVG) (FSE: EV7) (the “Company”) is pleased to report that two drill holes have intersected significant high grade gold at its Carlin project in Nevada. Both new holes are wedges drilled from hole CAR-002 and fall within an area approximately 20 meters north and northeast of this mother hole.” Read entire press release here. Disclosure: EVG.V is a Vulture Bargain Company of Interest. -- Gene Arensberg June 20, 2011 (Source:

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STS-131 – Some of what it takes to launch a shuttle.

Time lapse video. No sound till the last few seconds.-- Gene Arensberg http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=KZrFC988Thc

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06/20/2011

Riverstone Cuts More Gold in Burkina Faso

And Nami isn’t even included in the current 2-million-ounce 43-101. RVS.V is on the path to proving up 3 million ounces and drilling more, much more we think. Disclosure: We are long Keeper Free Shares of RVS with an appetite for more if Stupid Cheap. -- Gene Arensberg June 20, 2011 (Source: riverstoneresources.com)

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Business Report Interview with Ben Jones, CEO Canada Energy Partners

We’ve met Ben, gauged him to be a solid straight-shooter, and do indeed believe Vultures would enjoy knowing him. Ben runs one of the companies on our VBCI list. (Vulture Bargain Companies of Interest – some of the “Little Guys” we want to game here at GGR.) We think CE.V is undervalued by a market confused and uncertain. But they hold good land in the path of Big Elephants in the NatGas and Coal Bed Methane space

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06/19/2011

Zimbabwe Currency Collapse Illustrated

David Morgan at Silver-Investor.com sent this interesting video of Reed Larson of Old Glory Mint, which shows the shocking collapse of the Zimbabwe currency once confidence collapsed in it and hyper-inflation set in. Worthwhile, thanks to David Morgan for the link. – Gene Arensberg

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Fiat money inflation in France

“Max Keiser, of maxkeiser.com, James Turk, Director of The GoldMoney Foundation and Pierre Jovanovic, jovanovic.com, tell the story of the introduction of Fiat Money to France.” GoldMoney Foundation (Video in two parts). Worthwhile. -- Gene Arensberg June 18, 2011 (Source: GoldMoney)

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06/17/2011

Fort Knox U.S. Gold Reserves to be Independently Audited and Assayed?

Congressman Ron Paul Pressures U.S. Treasury The entire blog post is worthwhile, including several of the articles. -- Gene Arensberg June 17, 2011 (Source: Goldcore)

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Dive in Silver Price a “Setup” - Eric Sprott

“A lot of that QE1 and QE2 are giving a tailwind to gold and silver. If you want to tell me there’s going to be a QE3, I’m going to tell you silver will hit $50 before we even know it.” – Eric Sprott to Damon van der Linde, Silver Investing News June 14, 2011 (Source: Silver Investing News)

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Rick Rule on KWN

“Investment demand for silver bullion seems to be outpacing supply.” – Rick Rule, GRIL and Sprott Asset Management Rule believes investors steeping in to buy severely depressed mining equities will be richly rewarded.-- Gene Arensberg July 16, 2011 Source: King World News)

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06/16/2011

James Turk on King World News

“Central banks, if you look at what they do, are not helping society. They are hurting society. … Gold is not the barbarous relic, central banks are.” – James Turk June 6, 2011 (Source: King World News)

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Bankers aren't the problem; funny money is

GATA’s Chris Powell writes: “The June edition of the Gold Standard Institutes newsletter leads with an editorial warning that while bankers will be blamed for the worldwide financial collapse, this will be a distraction. Rather, the editorial says, the real culprit is infinite irredeemable money.” Powell is bang-on and we found this issue worth the time to read it. Thanks to GATA for the link.--Gene Arensberg June 15, 2011 (Source: The Gold Standard Institute)

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Iran's president: Post-Soviet security alliance to unite in alliance against West

“Much of Ahmadinejads fiery speech was devoted to levelling an exhaustive series of thinly veiled accusations against unnamed Western countries, which he described as enslavers, colonialists, (and) invaders. Which one of our countries (has played a role) in the black era of slavery, or in the destruction of hundreds of millions of human beings? Ahmadinejad said, opening his address.” – AP via Canadian Press This statement from an theocrat in a society that ensnares and enslaves an

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Views of Saturn from the Cassini Spacecraft

What has the Cassini orbiter seen since arriving at Saturn?--Gene Arensberg June 13, 2011 ( Source: NASA)

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06/15/2011

Calandra Calls Rally for Juniors

Stockhouse’ Thom Calandra steps out there to call a stealth rally in the junior miners. We’re pulling for the call, but thinking cheap when adding just the same. -- Gene Arensberg June 15, 2011 (Source: Stockhouse)

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Get Ready for a Beautiful Day - Don Hays

Hays’ asset allocation matrix signaling strength ahead for equities. Hays has been around a long time and is not to be taken lightly. (Short video)-- June 14, 2011 (Source: Hays Advisory)

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Bill Murphy explains what GATA knows about the gold market in Munich's Hofbruhaus

“Bill Murphy of GATA explains that in order to understand the gold and silver markets, one must know what GATA knows and be familiar with the gold price suppression scheme. Outstanding gold loans and massive paper gold shorts have distorted the market, and according to Murphy, this is now unraveling. He talks about GATA’s past predictions and how their track record is much better than those of mainstream gold commentators, because these mainstream commentators are working with

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Flying Car

Is this Maverick cool or what? Yeah, we want one too. Not practical? Who cares! (Short video.) (Source: Maverick LSA)

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Steel Gives Macke a Silver Update

We wondered what happened to Jeff Macke. (He used to be a regular on CNBC.) Well, here he is doing an irreverent Yahoo interview on silver with the lovely Alix Steel wearing her TheStreet.com “outfit” for this particular interview. If Macke would have been a little less snide and joking, he had a chance to get even more solid information from Steel who knows her stuff, but we are grateful for what Alix did get through Macke’s

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06/14/2011

Roger Wiegand's Trader Tracks initiates coverage on Millrock Resources:

We are intrigued as the shares have a good start, the company has excellent managers, and we like theproperty locations. Their business plan is the Project Generator Model where the company obtains select properties and proves-them-up for subsequent sale or, joint venture-merger with larger mining operators. Millrock has some excellent senior companies working on their projects, which proves the validity and potential success of their business. - Roger Wiegand April 2011 (Source:Trader Tracks)

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